A baseball/basketball post

Yes, what's coming is a link to a baseball post on a baseball blog (Joe Posnanski/Joe Blog) but it ventures into some fascinating territory. The article is primarily about a recent Kansas City Royals baseball trade but let's focus on Alex Gordon, a top Royals player:

"...Baseball people -- and intense baseball fans -- have always loved prospects. This has never been more true. Prospects are like backup quarterbacks. They are mysterious. They are promising. They are unlimited until they actually play. A friend asked me a fascinating question at the winter meetings. Alex Gordon is now one of the better players in baseball. People may not know that -- there's the syndrome again -- but it's true. Gordon gets on base, hits with extra-base power, steals an occasional base, plays great defense … there really aren't too many players in the game who do as much. Gordon has posted a 6.2 and 7.1 WAR the last two years, the first Royals player in more than 30 years to post back-to-back seasons of 6.0 WAR or better. He's excellent.
The question: When was Alex Gordon's trade value at its peak?
1. Now, when he's almost 29 and, after some low points, has proven to be one of the premier players in the game...
2. Or before the 2007 season, when he was widely viewed as the No. 1 prospect in baseball?
The answer, unquestionably, is 2007. There are intelligent reasons for this. In 2007, the Royals had him under their control for six years. They would have him cheap for three or four of those years at least. And, of course, he was quite a bit younger. But beyond that, Alex Gordon was still a riddle then. Now we know who he is -- an All-Star caliber player who, one of these years, probably will hit .300, obee .400, with 30 home runs, 100 runs, 100 RBIs and 15 stolen bases, win a left field Gold Glove, and so on. But in 2007? He was limitless. He might hit FIFTY home runs, with 160 RBIs. He was a third baseman then. Maybe he was Chipper Jones! Maybe he was Eddie Mathews! Maybe -- and yes, this was the big one -- maybe he was George Brett!..."

Substitute basketball people/coaches and intense basketball fans for baseball in the above. So the unknown future (or the promise) of an untested but highly rated prospect, recruit or draftee is often perceived as more valuable or greater than the proven, even if the latter is a known entity and pretty damn good. This contradicts the bird in the hand is better than two in the bush axiom.