CCCAA northern California summary & predictions

Not sure who to credit this to but its off the CCCAA site under 2014-14 Conference projections.

Big Eight Conference:
Our Pick: Diablo Valley
Runner Up: Cosumnes River
Playoff Contenders: Modesto, Sacramento, San Joaquin Delta, Santa Rosa, Sierra
Important Date: Hard to select just one or two dates, but we’ll start with January 7‐ Cosumnes River at Diablo Valley.

It will be nearly impossible for even the best conference representative to get seven, little alone six teams into an 18‐team playoff system. But that is something Cosumnes River coach James Giacomazzi could be faced with come mid‐February. Six of the eight teams open conference play with .500 records or better, led by our pick for the conference title, Diablo Valley. The Vikings are 12‐2 after winning their last five games. Both of Diablo Valley’s losses have come at the hands of Ohlone. Cosumnes River has been equally impressive, running up a 12‐4 record. If Giacomazzi can stay away from the Aye family he might have a shot at a state title. All four losses have come at the hands of either father Denny Aye at Chabot or son, Devin Aye at Lassen. Otherwise, the Hawks have been perfect. We really like Santa Rosa (6‐6) as a spoiler in the Big Eight. The Cubs’ losses have come against Fresno, San Francisco – three times, San Bernardino and Antelope Valley – all top 10 teams we figure for next Monday’s poll. Santa Rosa has won its last three games, including an 85‐74 victory over Yuba. Modes to (7‐7) lost to Sierra and Santa Rosa earlier this season at the Fresno Tournament. The Pirates will need to play large if they want to be in the discussion at the end of the season. Sacramento (7‐7)and San Joaquin Delta (6‐6) both begin conference play at .500 after somewhat challenging preseason schedules. Sacramento has lost three of their last four games however.

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Bay Valley Conference
Our Pick: Yuba
Runne Up: Los Medanos, Yuba
Playoff Contender: Marin, Merritt, Contrra Costa
Important Date: January 16‐ Yuba at Los Medanos and February 14‐ Los Medanos at Yuba

Yuba (6‐4) has been an interesting story this season, in a weird way. The 49’ers have had game breaks of 17 days, 14 days and will open conference play having come off a 13‐day break. Yuba, who has averaged 22 wins a season under head coach Doug Cornelius, has played just 10 games this season, only 0‐8 Alameda has played less games. Other than losing back‐to‐back games at the 16‐team Modesto Tournament, Yuba, which has won the last seven Bay Valley Conference titles, has played out its other tournaments. Perhaps Cornelius has his 49’ers rested for the upcoming 16‐game conference schedule and a possible run at a state championship. Los Medanos (9‐2) began the year with a six‐game win streak and won the Mendocino Tournament. Los Medanos has benefited from a soft preseason schedule, however, with their nine wins coming against teams with a combined 50‐68 record. Five of the teams have overall records at .500 or below. Marina and Merritt, which was big news last season when they advanced to the state tournament, both enter the conference schedule with 6‐5 records. Marin opens conference playing know it has already lost to Yuba by 26 points and Los Medanos by 11. Meanwhile, Merritt has issues after losing three of its last four and five of its last eight – all after opening the season with impressive wins over Monterey, Riverside and San Jose City. Contra Costa hopes a consolation championship from Ventura Tournament helps the Comets get off to a fast start. Unfortunately, they open at home against Yuba.

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Coast Conference South Division
Our Pick: San Jose City
Runner Up: Cabrillo
Playoff Contender: Monterey, DeAnza (both need a strong showing in conference)
Important Date: January 17‐San Jose at Cabrillo and February 12‐Cabrillo at San Jose

We went back and forth on the selection of San Jose for the conference title. In the end, the Jaguars’ preseason schedule was a little more impressive. However, in the end this will be a toss up. Cabrillo, whom closes out its preseason schedule on Saturday with a road game at Modesto, has lost three of its last four games. Meanwhile, San Jose closes out its pre‐conference schedule with a home game against San Francisco. San Jose is coming off a 5‐point loss to Fresno, snapping a four‐game win streak. The Jaguars didn’t shy away from the better competition, we’ll see if it pays off. Monterey’s season has been a like a bad faucet – running hot one moment and then cold the next. The Lobos (6‐8) haven’t had a win streak (or a losing streak) of more than two games. And unfortunately for Monterey, it gets Cabrillo at home and San Jose on the road to open conference pl ay. The Lobos’ fate will be known early. Like Monterey, DeAnza needs a strong showing in the conference race. The Dons (5‐7) have won three of their last five.

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Coast Conference North Division
Our Pick: San Francisco
Runner Up: Ohlone
Playoff Contender: Chabot, Skyline
Important Date: January 24‐San Francisco at Chabot, January 29‐San Francisco at Ohlone

Winners of 13 straight, San Francisco (14‐1) appears ready to claim another Coast North title. The Rams, who have won their last seven games by 10 or more points, will have to fight off defensive minded Ohlone (13‐2) team and Chabot (13‐3) in what could another great conference race. San Francisco plays well at home, but the Rams will need key wins at Ohlone and Chabot to come away with the conference title. Ohlone, who had a 13‐game win streak snapped on December 21 in an 80‐60 loss to Diablo Valley, has been playing exceptional defense. The Renegades have allowed the opposition 70 points or more just twice (Merritt scored 80 twice against Ohlone), while holding the opposition to 60 points or less seven times. Overall, Ohlone is allowing just 57 points a game, while San Francisco is averaging 87 points per game. Chabot may also have a say in all of this. The Gladiators take a four‐game win streak into its final non‐conference game with Sequoias on Saturday. Chabot is also getting good defensive play at 57.3 points per game, which will make for good watching when San Francisco squares off against Ohlone.

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Golden Valley Conference
Our Pick: Lassen
Runner Up: Siskiyous
Playoff Contender: Redwoods and Butte
Important Date: February 20‐Lassen at Siskiyous

This conference race has the potential to go down to the wire (remember I said potential). Lassen is 13‐9, but is just 3‐2 in its last five games. However, we think the Cougars are the team to beat once again in the Golden Valley race. Siskiyous figures to have the best chance to give Lassen a run for the conference trophy. Siskiyous is 10‐7, but limps into its conference schedule having lost four of its last seven. The Eagles lost to Lassen on December 6, 76‐74, at Modesto. Redwoods (10‐5) could have a say in that wins the conference, but we don’t think the Corsairs have shown enough in the preseason to consider them a contended for the conference title. Three of the Eagles wins are against college junior varsity teams and another four are against teams from Oregon. A winner of five of its last seven games, Butte’s conference title hopes will be determined early as the Roadrunners open at home against Lassen on January 8.

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Central Valley Conference
Our Pick: Fresno City
Runner Up:West Hills
Playoff Contender: None
Important Date: January 18‐Fresno at West Hills

This one no so much! We’re calling this one before it even gets started – Fresno City wins another CVC title. At 16‐1, Fresno leads the state in victories. Since losing to Sierra back on November 15, Fresno has run off 13 straight wins. Ten of Fresno’s wins have been by 10 points or more. The Rams will get a test January 4 when they host Saddleback, but after that look for Fresno to run the table. West Hills is the only other CVC team with a record better than .500 at 8‐6. The Falcons enter conference having lost five of their last eight after getting off to a 4‐0 start to begin the season. Other than victories over Allan Hancock and Delta, West Hills schedule doesn’t read very well. They’ll need a strong showing in conference play to make the playoffs – even as a second place team. It has been a tough year for Sequoias who traditionally pushes Fresno for the conference crown. The Giants are 5‐10 headed into a road game against Chabot and then open conference with back‐to‐back road games, which includes a stop in Fresno. Porterville and Reedley each sit a game below .500 with Columbia at 6‐8. We honestly see this as a one horse race.